With only a week to go before the midterm elections in the United States, which serve as a consultation on the president’s administration, the vote of the Hispanic community has become decisive in almost a dozen states across the country.
With a steadily growing electorate that is younger than the general electorate, some 34.5 million Hispanic Americans are expected to participate in the November 8 elections, according to a study conducted by LSG and released by The Hispanic Council.
The Hispanic population already represents 14.3 percent of the U.S. electoral census, a figure that has increased significantly over the last decades. In 2008, they represented 9.2 percent of the voting population.
Hispanic voters, who have traditionally been characterized by a particularly higher turnout rate than other voter groups, are concentrated mainly in states such as New Mexico, California, Texas, Arizona and Florida, among others, and have become key to winning a greater number of seats.
Most come from countries such as Mexico, El Salvador, Cuba and the Dominican Republic and focus their concerns on the economy, healthcare, education, violence and security. Several polls indicate that three out of four Hispanic voters have expressed dissatisfaction with the current leadership, while 50 percent have expressed disapproval of President Joe Biden’s administration.
KEY STATES California has 32 percent of Hispanic voters, a figure that places it as the state with the highest proportion of Hispanic voters, second only to New Mexico. The vote of this population sector will be decisive in the region, given that the elections could be very close.
The state is considered a blue state, with a Democratic majority, so no major surprises are expected when it comes to electing the next governor. However, the distance between the Democratic and Republican candidates is significantly smaller in the fight for seats.
Texas also has approximately 32 percent Hispanic voters, although there has been a recent shift to the Republican Party. Beyond its concrete impact on the election results, which will be very high, the behavior of the Hispanic vote in Texas could show new trends in certain districts.
Unlike California, it is considered a Republican fiefdom where the party has rarely lost influence. The Democrats managed to gain the support of these groups in the 2020 elections, although the margin was significantly reduced.
In Arizona, which has 25 percent Hispanic voters, the victory is not clear. In 2020, Biden won by only 10,000 votes and thanks to the support of Hispanic sectors, which overwhelmingly favored the Democrats.
However, the Republican Party has made gains since then and has managed to reduce the Democrats’ lead.
The weight of the Hispanic electorate in Florida is one of the largest historically. As in Texas, there has been a gradual shift in the vote, which now favors the Republicans.
In 2020, Republicans secured their victory in the state by greatly reducing support from Hispanic groups for Democrats, an endorsement they are looking to increase next week.
Nevada, with 21 percent Hispanic voters, also relies on the Hispanic vote, which could prove decisive. In this state, Biden won 2.39 percent more votes than former President Donald Trump. The support of Hispanic voters was fundamental for him to win this state.
Other areas such as Pennsylvania and Georgia are also in this line, where despite the fact that the Hispanic vote has a much smaller proportion, this electorate plays a key role in the face of minimal margins of victory for the main candidates.
