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Global warming will reduce world agricultural production by 30 percent by 2050 if no action is taken

Daniel Stewart

2022-11-03
Archive
Archive – Lake Alegria, Usulután, El Salvador – SEAN HAWKEY

The effects of global warming will reduce global agricultural production by 30 percent by 2050, if appropriate measures are not taken; and, in the case of maize, wheat and other crops, the decline could be as much as 80 percent in southern Africa.

This is reflected in the report ‘Climate emergency, food production and Fair Trade’ presented Thursday by the State Coordinator of Fair Trade on the occasion of the celebration of the Climate Summit that begins next November 7 in Egypt.

«From production to consumption, international trade causes a significant impact on the climate crisis,» said the executive director of the world Fair Trade organization, Leida Rijnhout, who stressed that the world trade system «needs an urgent transition to sustainable practices, including the social dimension that is the other side of the coin of this crisis».

For his part, the head of climate change of Fairtrade International, Juan Pablo Solis, warned that it cannot be expected «that small agricultural organizations, which already live in a situation of poverty and vulnerability and who are paid very low prices for their production, assume the full cost of the ecological transition.

In addition, he recalled that «rich countries must fulfill the commitment of the Paris Agreements and reach the 100 billion dollars in financing to help the most vulnerable communities to combat a crisis that they did not cause».

According to estimates by the International Fund for Agricultural Development, developing countries «would need between $180 billion and $300 billion annually for actions to adapt to climate change.»

The report also concludes that climate change poses «a serious threat to food production». Extreme events such as storms, hurricanes or droughts devastate crops, destroy agricultural infrastructures and cause desertification and the reduction of arable land.

IFAD also warns that, if appropriate policy and climate measures are not taken, production of maize, wheat, millet, peas and other products in eight southern African countries could fall by up to 80%. In the case of coffee, the area suitable for coffee cultivation could be reduced by 50% by 2050. And overall, global agricultural yields could decline by 30 percent by 2050, according to recent Oxfam research.

On the other hand, the report highlights the «important» role of smallholder farming organizations, which make up 95 percent of farms worldwide. They produce a third of the food consumed worldwide, and in developing countries they account for between 60 and 80 percent of the food consumed there.

80 PERCENT OF PEOPLE IN EXTREME POVERTY LIVE IN RURAL AREAS The study notes that 80 percent of people in extreme poverty live in rural areas and therefore have particular difficulties in coping with the effects of climate change and combating it. The World Bank estimates that by 2050, 143 million people in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia could migrate to cities for climate-related reasons.

The report highlights the impact of conventional trade and production on climate change. Various UN agencies point out that unsustainable levels of production and consumption are responsible for emissions of an alarming amount of carbon dioxide and other harmful gases into the atmosphere.

It also reveals that commercial agriculture is responsible for 80 percent of deforestation worldwide and that 13 million hectares of forests are lost every year. On the other hand, the process of soil degradation, which already affects more than a third of the global surface, «has skyrocketed mainly due to the elimination of grasslands and savannah for agricultural purposes».

Finally, the publication explains how Fair Trade and its practices demonstrate that «it is possible a business model that respects the environment and a dignified life for its workers». Thus, it assures that the payment of decent and stable prices, adequate wage remuneration, and training and advice «facilitate agricultural organizations to make an ecological transition, maintaining productivity and income».

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